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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 71
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON AUG 21 2000
CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 75 KNOTS AS PER DVORAK ANALYSES...AND
THE EYE IS STILL APPARENT ON THE IMAGERY. HOWEVER WEAKENING IS
LIKELY TO COMMENCE VERY SOON AS ALBERTO TRACKS OVER THE
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER WATERS NORTH OF 40N LATITUDE. THE SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TOMORROW...AND EVENTUALLY
MERGE WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
THE FORWARD SPEED IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE...AND MOTION IS
NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 020/10. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS
BASICALLY THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF ADVISORIES.
CONTINUED ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED AS ALBERTO GETS PICKED UP BY A
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO
THE GFDL AND AVN GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 40.6N 46.4W 75 KTS
12HR VT 22/0600Z 42.4N 45.4W 70 KTS
24HR VT 22/1800Z 45.6N 43.2W 65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 23/0600Z 50.0N 40.0W 55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 23/1800Z 55.0N 35.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 24/1800Z...ABSORBED
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