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TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2000

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW CLUSTERS OF
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60
KNOTS.  AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO DETERMINE THE INTENSITY.  FLORENCE WILL HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN TO HURRICANE STATUS ONCE IT BEGINS TO
MOVE AWAY FROM ITS PRESENT LOCATION TOWARD WARMER WATERS.

FLORENCE IS DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 3 KNOTS AND LITTLE MOTION
IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KICK FLORENCE OUT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.  ON THIS TRACK...FLORENCE WILL MOVE DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO
BERMUDA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE GFDL.

WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA EARLY THURSDAY.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0300Z 30.2N  73.3W    60 KTS
12HR VT     14/1200Z 30.0N  72.9W    60 KTS
24HR VT     15/0000Z 30.2N  70.2W    65 KTS
36HR VT     15/1200Z 31.5N  67.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     16/0000Z 34.0N  65.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     17/0000Z 41.5N  61.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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