ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT JUL 29 2000
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10 AND THE MOTION OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS MAY BE A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS 265/10 UNTIL DISSIPATION WITH THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL RUN SHOWING
A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER FLARE-
UP IS UNLIKELY AS ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR
DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/2100Z 20.2N 120.6W 30 KTS
12HR VT 30/0600Z 20.1N 122.2W 25 KTS
24HR VT 30/1800Z 20.1N 124.3W 20 KTS
36HR VT 31/0600Z 20.0N 126.4W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 31/1800Z DISSIPATED
NNNN
Problems?