ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI AUG 04 2000
THE CENTER OF FABIO IS NOW LOCATED UNDER A LARGE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND CONSEQUENTLY THE T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 AND
3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. I NITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 45
KNOTS. THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO
EASTERLY SHEAR. A SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF FABIO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
AND BUILD WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP FABIO ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST TRACK. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/1500Z 17.0N 118.2W 45 KTS
12HR VT 05/0000Z 17.0N 119.7W 50 KTS
24HR VT 05/1200Z 17.0N 121.8W 55 KTS
36HR VT 06/0000Z 17.0N 124.0W 60 KTS
48HR VT 06/1200Z 16.5N 126.0W 60 KTS
72HR VT 07/1200Z 16.5N 130.0W 60 KTS
NNNN
Problems?