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TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON AUG 07 2000
TROPICAL STORM GILMA HAS INTENSIFIED OVERNIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BROUGHT UP TO 60 KT AND GILMA IS VERY NEAR MINIMAL HURRICANE
INTENSITY.
INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. THE OFFICAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...AND GILMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST
THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN TURN MORE WESTWARD AFTER THAT AS THE
SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CLIPER...GFDN AND NOGAPS
MODELS.
GILMA HAS DEVELOPED A LARGE CDO FEATURE OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER WITH
A HINT OF A WARM SPOT DEVELOPING IN THE CIRRUS CANOPY. GILMA IS
EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY LATER TODAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN
STRENGTHEN MORE THAN WE ARE INDICATING. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
OVER 28C TO 29C SSTS AND THOSE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BECOME
ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH WHICH SUGGESTS SOME RESTRICTION OR SHEAR...AND
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL ONLY TAKES GILMA UP TO 65 TO 70 KT IN 24
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES OVER COOLER WATER.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0900Z 18.5N 114.8W 60 KTS
12HR VT 07/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W 70 KTS
24HR VT 08/0600Z 19.8N 118.3W 75 KTS
36HR VT 08/1800Z 20.3N 120.3W 75 KTS
48HR VT 09/0600Z 20.6N 122.0W 65 KTS
72HR VT 10/0600Z 20.8N 125.2W 55 KTS
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