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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM PDT MON AUG 28 2000

FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE SYSTEM REVEAL THAT THE LOW-CENTER HAS
BECOME MORE INVOLVED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT. 
THIS INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WARRANTS UPGRADING THE DISTURBANCE TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E.  THERE IS SOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR OVER THE AREA...SO ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT BASED ON A GOOD FIX AT 28/00Z AND
THE CURRENT CENTER POSITION...THE ESTIMATE IS 300/4.  GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AMPLIFYING TO THE NORTH OF 20N
LATITUDE AND A VERY WEAK RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  A CONTINUED SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST...WHICH
IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/1700Z 15.4N 138.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     29/0000Z 15.6N 138.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     29/1200Z 15.9N 139.4W    40 KTS
36HR VT     30/0000Z 16.2N 140.4W    40 KTS
48HR VT     30/1200Z 16.5N 141.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     31/1200Z 17.0N 143.5W    45 KTS
 
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