288
WTPZ42 KNHC 291432
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 29 2000
JOHN REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED STORM WITH STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER AND GOOD UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW. THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE IN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WITH THE DVORAK T NUMBER
HOLDING AT 3.5...I.E. 55 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST IS THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ASSUMES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE
TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE BEING AFFECTED BY INCREASING
SHEAR.
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/4 AS BEFORE. THE NCEP GLOBAL
CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JOHN BEING
ERODED BY A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...A VERY SLOW MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/1500Z 16.3N 139.2W 55 KTS
12HR VT 30/0000Z 16.6N 139.7W 65 KTS
24HR VT 30/1200Z 16.8N 140.4W 65 KTS
36HR VT 31/0000Z 17.0N 141.3W 65 KTS
48HR VT 31/1200Z 17.0N 142.0W 60 KTS
72HR VT 01/1200Z 17.0N 143.5W 50 KTS
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