ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE SEP 12 2000
THE WEAKENING PROCESS CONTINUES...AS LANE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS. THERE IS ALSO SOME EVIDENCE OF STRONGER VERTICAL
SHEAR BEGINNING OVER THE SYSTEM...SINCE THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS
BECOME SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRIC AND MORE NORTHWARD-ORIENTED. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OVER COLD WATERS IN 36 HOURS OR SO.
INITIAL MOTION...310/10...IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED. A
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF LANE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. DEEPER-LAYER STEERING
WOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACCELERATED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IN
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER LANE...OR ITS
REMNANTS...SHOULD BE SO WEAK AND SHALLOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS THAT A
SIGNIFICANT NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION SEEMS UNLIKELY.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LANE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0900Z 24.8N 121.4W 50 KTS
12HR VT 12/1800Z 25.8N 122.7W 45 KTS
24HR VT 13/0600Z 27.6N 123.3W 35 KTS
36HR VT 13/1800Z 29.0N 123.5W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 14/0600Z 31.0N 123.5W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 15/0600Z 35.0N 122.0W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
NNNN
Problems?