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TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON OCT 09 2000
 
OLIVIA SHOWS NO DEEP CONVECTION...WITH THE REMAINS OF EARLIER
CONVECTION MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 30 KT...SO THE CYCLONE IS DOWNGRADED TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/7.  A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. AND NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CAUSE OLIVIA TO RECURVE...ALTHOUGH THIS IS
NOT YET UNDERWAY.  ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT CLIPER AGREES WITH
RECURVATURE...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE EXCEPT NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.
 
OLIVIA IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO COOLER WATER...AND THERE IS STILL
EVIDENCE OF EASTERLY SHEAR.  ADDITIONALLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS WESTERLY SHEAR AWAITING THE DEPRESSION AS IT RECURVES.  THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING...WITH OLIVIA LIKELY TO
DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT CAN MOVE INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 48 HR IN DEFERENCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
GFDL MODEL.  IF THERE ARE NO MORE CONVECTIVE FLARE-UPS NEAR THE
CENTER...OLIVIA MAY DISSIPATE MUCH SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AS
PER THE SHIPS MODEL.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0900Z 19.6N 116.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     09/1800Z 20.4N 117.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     10/0600Z 22.1N 117.8W    25 KTS
36HR VT     10/1800Z 24.0N 116.7W    25 KTS
48HR VT     11/0600Z 26.0N 114.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     12/0600Z...DISSIPATED 
 
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