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TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM PST SUN NOV 05 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO.  A TROUGH OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IS FORECAST BY THE 12Z
AVIATION MODEL RUN TO MOVE OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A CUT-OFF LOW BY
72 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED AND CAUSE A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AS INDICATED BY THE MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
MODELS.  ONLY THE NOGAPS AND LBAR MODELS SHOW ANY ACCELERATION OF
FORWARD SPEED.  
 
THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY CALLING FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO 50 KNOTS.
THIS IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS
THE WIND SPEED TO 76 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...THE UKMET
MODEL FORECASTS SLIGHT WEAKENING...AND THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS 49
KNOTS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2100Z 11.2N  98.5W    40 KTS
12HR VT     06/0600Z 11.5N  99.7W    45 KTS
24HR VT     06/1800Z 12.7N 100.4W    50 KTS
36HR VT     07/0600Z 13.9N 100.2W    50 KTS
48HR VT     07/1800Z 14.8N 100.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     08/1800Z 16.0N  99.5W    50 KTS
  
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