ZCZC MIASPFAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JOYCE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT SEP 30 2000
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST TUE OCT 3 2000
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
11.8N 62.2W 56 X X X 56 TIST 183N 650W X X 2 2 4
12.5N 65.0W X 33 X X 33 TJPS 180N 666W X X 5 4 9
13.5N 67.5W X 8 16 1 25 MDSD 185N 697W X X 1 10 11
SKPG 125N 717W X X 3 13 16 MDCB 176N 714W X X 1 13 14
TNCC 122N 690W X 1 16 3 20 MTPP 186N 724W X X X 11 11
SVMG 110N 640W 10 25 X X 35 MTCA 183N 738W X X X 11 11
TTPP 106N 614W 58 X X X 58 MKJP 179N 768W X X X 5 5
TTPT 112N 608W 73 X X X 73 MKJS 185N 779W X X X 2 2
TGPY 120N 618W 59 X 1 X 60 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 5 5
TBPB 131N 595W 43 X X X 43 TJSJ 184N 661W X X 3 3 6
TVSV 131N 612W 50 X X X 50 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 8 8
TLPL 138N 610W 33 X X X 33 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 4 4
TFFF 146N 610W 12 3 X X 15 MYMM 224N 730W X X X 2 2
TDPR 153N 614W 4 3 1 X 8 ST CROIX VI X 1 3 2 6
TFFR 163N 615W X 2 X X 2 ST THOMAS VI X X 2 2 4
TKPK 173N 627W X 1 1 X 2 SAN JUAN PR X X 3 3 6
TISX 177N 648W X 1 3 2 6 PONCE PR X X 5 4 9
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON
C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON
D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
Problems?
![[NCEP Logo]](/graphics/ncep.gif){kind=small}