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TROPICAL STORM JOYCE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN OCT 01 2000
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST WED OCT 4 2000
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
12.4N 65.0W 54 X X X 54 MTPP 186N 724W X X 1 11 12
13.3N 67.2W 4 28 X X 32 MTCA 183N 738W X X X 13 13
14.0N 69.5W X 11 11 1 23 MKJP 179N 768W X X X 11 11
SKPG 125N 717W X 1 12 4 17 MKJS 185N 779W X X X 8 8
TNCC 122N 690W X 16 5 X 21 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 8 8
SVMG 110N 640W 56 X X X 56 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 2 2
TTPP 106N 614W 99 X X X 99 TJSJ 184N 661W X 1 2 1 4
TTPT 112N 608W 99 X X X 99 MDPP 198N 707W X X 1 6 7
TGPY 120N 618W 92 X X X 92 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 3 3
TVSV 131N 612W 25 X X X 25 MYMM 224N 730W X X X 2 2
TISX 177N 648W X 1 2 X 3 ST CROIX VI X 1 2 X 3
TIST 183N 650W X X 2 X 2 ST THOMAS VI X X 2 X 2
TJPS 180N 666W X 1 4 2 7 SAN JUAN PR X 1 2 1 4
MDSD 185N 697W X X 4 6 10 PONCE PR X 1 4 2 7
MDCB 176N 714W X X 5 10 15
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON
C FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE
D FROM 2AM TUE TO 2AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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