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TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2001
A RECON FIX AT 0547Z GIVES A MOTION OF 325/06 FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS.
THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL AT 500 MB SHOWS THE STORM TRAPPED WITHIN A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THE
VARIOUS TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE CLOSELY CLUSTERED ALONG A
FAIRLY SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE AND IS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE RECON FIX
AND INITIAL MOTION.
THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 999 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND 49 KNOTS AT
925-MB FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE PRESSURE
HAS FALLEN 10 MB IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS. OTHERWISE THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BRINGING ERIN TO 65 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS.
THE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO HAVE ITS UPS AND DOWNS BUT THE MOST
RECENT INFRARED IMAGES SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD TOPS AND
ORGANIZATION. THE SHIPS MODEL COMPUTES 18 KNOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR
NEARBY FOR 24 HOURS DECREASING TO 6 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/0900Z 26.7N 59.0W 40 KTS
12HR VT 08/1800Z 27.7N 59.6W 45 KTS
24HR VT 09/0600Z 29.4N 60.6W 50 KTS
36HR VT 09/1800Z 31.0N 61.8W 55 KTS
48HR VT 10/0600Z 32.5N 63.5W 60 KTS
72HR VT 11/0600Z 35.0N 66.0W 65 KTS
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