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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2001
...CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 90 KTS...
LAST RECON WAS AROUND 11Z...AND ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED FOR
18Z. MEANWHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE BECOMING A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED ALTHOUGH THE SURROUNDING TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED A LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT. HOWEVER ERIN STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME THE FIRST MAJOR...CAT 3...HURRICANE OF
THE SEASON.
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12. ERIN IS MOVING THROUGH A SLIGHT
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THIS TIME. OVERALL... THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS RECURVATURE BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE
U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL SHOWS A CONSIDERABLY FASTER MOVEMENT TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS
MORE TOWARD A BLEND OF THE AVN AND NOGAPS TRACKS.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/1500Z 32.2N 62.6W 90 KTS
12HR VT 10/0000Z 33.5N 64.0W 100 KTS
24HR VT 10/1200Z 35.2N 65.2W 95 KTS
36HR VT 11/0000Z 36.4N 65.5W 90 KTS
48HR VT 11/1200Z 37.2N 65.5W 85 KTS
72HR VT 12/1200Z 39.0N 63.0W 80 KTS
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