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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2001
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ERIN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT
...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 105 KT. THE EYE HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED...WHILE THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED
SLIGHTLY. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT EXCELLENT
TO THE EAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/11. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. ERIN IS EXPECTED
TO SLOW DOWN IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS AND MAKE A TURN MORE TOWARD THE
NORTH AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS. THE APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN CANADA SHOULD GRADUALLY PICK UP ERIN
AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE TO THE NORTHEAST BY 48 HOURS.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK AND ALSO IS BETWEEN THE AVN AND UKMET MODEL TRACKS.
GIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF ERIN...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING AFTER THAT AS THE
SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AND
MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0900Z 34.7N 64.4W 105 KTS
12HR VT 10/1800Z 35.9N 64.8W 100 KTS
24HR VT 11/0600Z 37.1N 64.8W 95 KTS
36HR VT 11/1800Z 38.2N 63.2W 90 KTS
48HR VT 12/0600Z 39.0N 61.0W 80 KTS
72HR VT 13/0600Z 41.0N 57.0W 70 KTS
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