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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2001
VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THAT ERIN REMAINS A VERY WELL-ORGANIZED
SYSTEM...WITH THE CLASSIC SIGNATURE OF A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE 30 N
MI DIAMETER EYE REMAINS WELL DEFINED. ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS
FORECAST SINCE ERIN SHOULD REMAIN OVER FAIRLY WARM...HIGHER THAN 26
DEG C...WATERS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A REPEAT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A LITTLE ABOVE THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/9. THE HURRICANE HAS NOT YET TURNED
TOWARD A MORE NORTHWARD HEADING...LIKELY BECAUSE OF THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
IT IS PRESUMED THAT...AS ERIN GAINS MORE LATITUDE...THE EFFECT OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL DIMINISH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT
ERIN IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN. THEN...AROUND THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...A SECOND SHORTWAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND INCREASE THE MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. IN
THE MEANTIME...ERIN'S FORWARD MOTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SLOW.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/1500Z 35.4N 64.8W 105 KTS
12HR VT 11/0000Z 36.5N 65.0W 100 KTS
24HR VT 11/1200Z 37.5N 64.3W 95 KTS
36HR VT 12/0000Z 38.2N 62.4W 90 KTS
48HR VT 12/1200Z 39.0N 60.5W 80 KTS
72HR VT 13/1200Z 41.5N 56.0W 70 KTS
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