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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2001
ERIN REMAINS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH THE
EYE IS A LITTLE RAGGED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED
FROM 06Z...SO CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 80 KNOTS. SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...ERIN MAY BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
ERIN IS WOBBLING...BUT HAS FINALLY TURNED TO THE EAST OF
NORTH...INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/06...BUT IT MAY BE EVEN MORE
TO THE RIGHT. ERIN SHOULD BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD TO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S.
COAST. LATER IN THE PERIOD...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD
DEEPEN THE TROUGH AND ACCELERATE ERIN. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A HAZARD
ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/1500Z 37.6N 65.5W 80 KTS
12HR VT 12/0000Z 38.3N 64.5W 80 KTS
24HR VT 12/1200Z 38.9N 62.6W 75 KTS
36HR VT 13/0000Z 39.5N 60.5W 70 KTS
48HR VT 13/1200Z 40.5N 58.0W 70 KTS
72HR VT 14/1200Z 45.0N 53.0W 65 KTS
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