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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2001
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT ERIN HAS MAINTAINED ITS
INTENSITY FOR THE TIME BEING. SINCE THE HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE OVER
A RIBBON OF SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...WEAKENING IS PREDICTED TO BE SLOW. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ERIN SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. ERIN
IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND A TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR THE NORTHEAST U.S.
COAST. THIS IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A HAZARD
ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/2100Z 37.9N 64.9W 80 KTS
12HR VT 12/0600Z 38.5N 63.8W 80 KTS
24HR VT 12/1800Z 39.0N 61.7W 75 KTS
36HR VT 13/0600Z 39.8N 59.5W 70 KTS
48HR VT 13/1800Z 41.0N 57.5W 65 KTS
72HR VT 14/1800Z 46.0N 52.5W 60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
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