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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2001
HURRICANE ERIN HAS BEEN HOLDING ITS OWN AT SUCH A HIGH LATITUDE AND
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THE CYCLONE IS STILL AROUND
75 KT INTENSITY. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO THE NORTH AND FAIR
ELSEWHERE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/08. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
HAS BEEN MOVING ERIN EASTWARD TODAY IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ERIN TO SLOW DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT AND MUCH LARGER TROUGH
FINALLY PICKS UP ERIN FOR GOOD. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY ALL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...
AND THE BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD ACT TO PULL THE
CYCLONE MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS
SCENARIO IS BEST DEPICTED BY THE UKMET-AVN CONSENSUS.
GIVEN THE DEEP VERTICAL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN...ONLY SLOW
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES MUCH COLDER WATER IN
48 HOURS. HOWEVER...LATEST INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL IS BEGINNING TO OPEN UP IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT...HINTING THAT ERIN MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY THAN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A HAZARD
ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0900Z 38.0N 62.9W 75 KTS
12HR VT 12/1800Z 38.1N 61.6W 70 KTS
24HR VT 13/0600Z 38.7N 59.9W 65 KTS
36HR VT 13/1800Z 40.0N 58.2W 60 KTS
48HR VT 14/0600Z 41.4N 56.7W 55 KTS
72HR VT 15/0600Z 44.5N 53.5W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
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