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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2001
ERIN CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON THE SATELLITE IMAGES.
HOWEVER THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE 30 N MI DIAMETER EYE ARE
GRADUALLY WARMING. THE LARGE CIRCULATION SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN...AND
ERIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD...PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE SOUTH
OF EAST. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ERIN MAY BE
RETARDING ITS FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT...BUT THE UPPER LOW'S
INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME...WITH THE
PRIMARY STEERING BEING DUE TO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE
LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS LEANING MORE TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BENT A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/1500Z 38.0N 62.1W 75 KTS
12HR VT 13/0000Z 38.4N 60.7W 70 KTS
24HR VT 13/1200Z 39.5N 59.0W 65 KTS
36HR VT 14/0000Z 41.0N 57.0W 60 KTS
48HR VT 14/1200Z 43.0N 56.0W 55 KTS
72HR VT 15/1200Z 47.0N 52.5W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
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