ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2001
THE EYE IS BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED...BUT LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 75 KNOTS. ASSUMING THAT THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO TURN NORTHWARD...SSTS WILL BE COOLING SUBSTANTIALLY ALONG THE
TRACK. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT. HOWEVER ERIN MAY WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE
TO COLD WATER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN
72 HOURS...PERHAPS SOONER.
ERIN HAS BEEN MOVING QUITE SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST. AN
EASTWARD-MOVING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...SHOULD PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR A NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION IN A DAY OR SO. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE MODIFICATION TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT TO MOVE THE SYSTEM A BIT FASTER IN
2-3 DAYS...CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/2100Z 38.0N 61.6W 75 KTS
12HR VT 13/0600Z 38.2N 60.6W 70 KTS
24HR VT 13/1800Z 39.5N 59.2W 65 KTS
36HR VT 14/0600Z 41.5N 57.0W 60 KTS
48HR VT 14/1800Z 44.0N 54.5W 55 KTS
72HR VT 15/1800Z 50.0N 49.0W 70 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
NNNN
Problems?