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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2001
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/07. THE EYE OF ERIN REMAINS LARGE
BUT WELL-DEFINED. THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY OVER 26C SST WATER AND
SHOULD REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY FAVORABLE OCEAN TEMPERATURES FOR
ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST UNTIL
THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPCIAL IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORERCAST TRACK REASONING. ERIN
IS NOW MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD BY ALL THE MODELS AND
BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY-TILTED...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ACCELERATE THE
CYCLONE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO
PASS CLOSE TO SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND TO CORRESPOND WITH
THE MPC HIGH SEAS/MARINE FORECASTS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0900Z 38.5N 60.7W 70 KTS
12HR VT 13/1800Z 39.5N 59.4W 65 KTS
24HR VT 14/0600Z 41.6N 57.2W 65 KTS
36HR VT 14/1800Z 44.3N 54.8W 60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 15/0600Z 48.0N 52.0W 55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 16/0600Z 60.0N 42.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
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