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SUBTROPICAL STORM ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2001
THE SUBTROPICAL STORM HAS NOT CHANGED IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. A RING OF THUNDERSTORMS IS TRYING TO FORM AROUND THE
LARGE CENTER...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS FAILED SO FAR IN DEVELOPING ENOUGH
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE. THEREFORE...IT DESERVES TO STAY AS
SUBTROPICAL STORM AND NOT TO BE NAMED KAREN AT THIS TIME. THE
SYSTEM STILL HAS THE OPORTUNITY TO MAKE THE TRANSITION TO TROPICAL
IN A DAY OR SO...BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS. IT IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...OR A WINTERTIME LOW...IN 72 HOURS.
THE SUBTROPICAL STORM IS MOVING ABOUT 015/08 KNOTS. AN APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0300Z 34.4N 65.9W 55 KTS
12HR VT 13/1200Z 35.6N 65.7W 55 KTS
24HR VT 14/0000Z 37.0N 65.0W 50 KTS
36HR VT 14/1200Z 39.0N 64.0W 45 KTS
48HR VT 15/0000Z 41.0N 62.5W 45 KTS
72HR VT 16/0000Z 44.0N 60.0W 30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
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