ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST THU NOV 01 2001
THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA...BUT MICHELLE HAS BEEN
MAINTAINING VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING...
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SOME SOUTHERLY OR
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS. BASED ON PREVIOUS TRENDS AND SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT AT 12Z...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET
TO 60 KT. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL TELL US MORE.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...EVEN FOR RAPID
STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE...AND BRINGS MICHELLE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN TWO
DAYS.
THE CENTER POSITION IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WITH EVEN VISIBLE
IMAGERY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MICHELLE HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE
LEFT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 330/6. STEERING IS
CURRENTLY BEING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A LARGE CUTOFF DIGS SOUTH OUT THE
MID-LATITUDES OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TO GRADUALLY TURN MICHELLE TO THE
RIGHT NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS NOT YET CLEAR HOW
SHARP A TURN MICHELLE WILL MAKE...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOUR TO FIVE DAY
TIME FRAME.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 17.2N 83.9W 60 KTS
12HR VT 02/0000Z 18.0N 84.4W 70 KTS
24HR VT 02/1200Z 19.0N 84.9W 80 KTS
36HR VT 03/0000Z 19.8N 85.0W 85 KTS
48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.5N 85.0W 95 KTS
72HR VT 04/1200Z 22.0N 84.0W 95 KTS
NNNN
Problems?