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HURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST FRI NOV 02 2001
EVEN THOUGH THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE NOT QUITE THERE YET...
MICHELLE WAS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE EARLIER THIS MORNING BASED ON
TWO DROPWINDSONDE SURFACE WIND REPORTS OF 69 KT AND A THIRD OF 63
KT. MICHELLE IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A MORE CLASSICAL CIRCULAR
APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EVIDENCE OF SHEAR IS
DIMINISHING. FOR THE FIRST TIME...ALL 5 OF THE STATISTICAL
PREDICTORS FROM THE HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISIONS EXPERIMENTAL RAPID
INTENSIFICATION MODEL HAVE BEEN SATISFIED. GIVEN THIS...THE
IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE... INCLUDING THE FIRST EVIDENCE OF A
DEVELOPING EYE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE ALL THE
EXPLICIT GUIDANCE IN CALLING FOR MICHELLE TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
THE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC BUT AVERAGES TO 360/3. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SLOW N TO NNW MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. BEYOND THAT...THE UKMET HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN TAKING THE
SYSTEM MORE NORTHWARD AND THEN INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE AVN HAS BEEN
EVEN MORE CONSISTENT IN TURNING MICHELLE SHARPLY EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEARS
TO LIE IN THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE UKMET
HAS A SHARPER TROUGH WITH WEAKER WESTERLIES...WHILE THE AVN
FORECASTS A FLATTER PATTERN WITH STRONGER FLOW. THE DIFFERENCE IS
SUBTLE AND THERE IS NO SOLID BASIS YET FOR FAVORING ONE OVER THE
OTHER...YET IT COULD MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD FOR THE
POTENTIAL IMPACT OF MICHELLE ON SOUTH FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FALLS
IN BETWEEN THE TWO OPTIONS DISCUSSED ABOVE.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/1500Z 17.9N 83.9W 65 KTS
12HR VT 03/0000Z 18.5N 84.0W 75 KTS
24HR VT 03/1200Z 19.6N 84.1W 90 KTS
36HR VT 04/0000Z 20.7N 84.0W 100 KTS
48HR VT 04/1200Z 21.5N 83.5W 95 KTS
72HR VT 05/1200Z 23.5N 81.0W 85 KTS
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