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SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2001
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE INNER CORE OF THE STORM CONSISTS OF TWO
INNER-LOCKING BANDS. THIS WARM CORE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
SEPARATING FROM THE OUTER NON-SYMMETRIC BAND TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST WHICH CONSTITUTES THE NON-TROPICAL PART OF THE STORM. THE
CLASSIFICATION WILL REMAIN SUBTROPICAL...UNTIL AND IF A CLEAR
DISTINCTION CAN BE MADE BETWEEN THE 34 KNOT WIND RADII OF THE INNER
CORE AND THE NON TROPICAL WEATHER.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/13 BASED ON PAST 18 HOURS. A SHORTER
PERIOD MOTION MIGHT BE FASTER. THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE SHOWS SLOW
MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH DISAGREEMENT IN DIRECTION. A
SLOW MOSTLY WESTWARD FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BRING THE WIND SPEED TO 75 TO 80 KNOTS
WHILE THE AVIATION AND UKMET MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND
SPEED. THE OFF FORECAST TO 65 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS IS ALSO A CONSENSUS
OF THE GUIDANCE.
THE WIND RADII ARE REDUCED TO A SMALL SYMMETRIC SHAPE IN 24 HOURS TO
REFLECT THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE NON-TROPICAL PORTION OF THE WIND
FIELD WILL SEPARATE OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/1500Z 31.8N 53.9W 55 KTS
12HR VT 26/0000Z 31.8N 55.4W 60 KTS
24HR VT 26/1200Z 32.0N 56.4W 65 KTS
36HR VT 27/0000Z 32.3N 57.4W 65 KTS
48HR VT 27/1200Z 32.2N 58.3W 60 KTS
72HR VT 28/1200Z 32.0N 59.0W 60 KTS
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