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HURRICANE OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE NOV 27 2001
INFRARED IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
A BIT...HOWEVER THE EYE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...SO THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 80
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW DOES NOT LOOK AS
IMPRESSIVE AS 24 HOURS AGO...HOWEVER THE SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY LOW.
ALTHOUGH OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE NOT VERY WARM...COOL AIR IN THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERE IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO INSTABILITY AND THE
MAINTENANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION. ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. HOWEVER AN UNEXPECTED INCREASE IN
VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD LIKELY BRING ABOUT A MORE RADID DECREASE IN
INTENSITY.
AFTER EXECUTING A CYCLONIC LOOP...OLGA IS MEANDERING...AND
ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGER-SCALE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS PRETTY MUCH
ISOLATED FROM THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES. THIS LARGER CIRCULATION
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND BRING OLGA WITH IT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS
THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION COMMENCING IN A DAY OR SO. THIS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT SLOWER THAN
THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST
FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL TRACK.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0300Z 32.3N 55.7W 80 KTS
12HR VT 28/1200Z 32.3N 55.8W 80 KTS
24HR VT 29/0000Z 32.0N 56.0W 75 KTS
36HR VT 29/1200Z 31.0N 57.0W 75 KTS
48HR VT 30/0000Z 30.0N 58.0W 70 KTS
72HR VT 01/0000Z 28.5N 60.0W 65 KTS
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