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TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2001
SURFACE WIND DATA FROM ANOTHER MICROWAVE PASS AT 14Z CONFIRM THAT
THE PEAK WINDS IN OLGA ARE ABOUT 30 KT. OLGA IS NOT GOING QUIETLY
INTO THIS LAST GOOD NIGHT OF THE HURRICANE SEASON...AS IT HAS BEEN
MAINTAINING ENOUGH CONVECTION...ALL EAST OF THE CENTER...TO
QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT THE CONVECTION HAS CREPT
A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ABATE SOME AFTER 24
HOURS...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE LEFT OF OLGA TO TAKE ADVANTANGE.
THE MOTION HAS SLOWED...TO 235/6 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND NEARLY
ZERO OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. WHILE THIS COULD BE AN INDICATION
THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF OLGA IS WEAKENING...I SUSPECT
THAT IT IS MORE RELATED TO A DISTORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
BY THE ASYMMETRIC DISTRIBUTION OF THE CONVECTION. THE AVIATION
MODEL MOVES OLGA...OR ITS REMNANTS...SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR THREE DAYS.
THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS...WHICH
CONTINUE OLGA SMARTLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO EAST-CENTRAL CUBA.
RECENT TRENDS...AND THE AVIATIONS OUTSTANDING TRACK RECORD THIS
SEASON...HAVE CONVINCED ME TO SLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A
BIT...ALTHOUGH IT STILL IS NOT AS SLOW AS THE AVIATION.
ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST BELOW CALLS FOR OLGA TO DEGENERATE INTO A
NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS...IF THE CIRCULATION
CONTINUES TO ELONGATE...THE CYCLONE MAY DISSIPATE INSTEAD.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/2100Z 23.7N 67.1W 30 KTS
12HR VT 01/0600Z 23.0N 68.4W 30 KTS
24HR VT 01/1800Z 22.8N 70.0W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 02/0600Z 22.8N 71.5W 25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 02/1800Z 22.8N 72.5W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/1800Z 23.0N 74.5W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
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