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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT MAY 26 2001
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE ABOUT STATIONARY. THE AVIATION MODEL
SHOWS A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT FOR THREE DAYS WITH A 500-MB
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION DRIFTING EASTWARD FROM BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO MAINLAND MEXICO. THE NOGAPS MODEL IS EVEN SLOWER THAN
THE AVIATION AND THE UKMET IS YET SLOWER. FINALLY THE GFDL MODEL
KEEPS THE CENTER IN ABOUT THE SAME PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A VERY SLOW 290/02 FOR 72 HOURS.
AFTER A DECREASE IN CONVECTION EARLIER...A COLD CDO TYPE FEATURE HAS
RECENTLY DEVELOPED AND THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE GETTING A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 01Z SHOWS A CLOSED CIRCULATION
BUT THE CENTER IS NOT QUITE AS WELL DEFINED AS THE PREVIOUS PASS.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT AND 35 KT
RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AND FORECAST ARE THE SAME AS
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BECOMING A STORM IN 12 HOURS AND
STRENGTHENING TO 70 KT IN 48 HOURS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS
MODEL AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE GFDL MODEL.
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED FOR MEXICO AT THIS TIME. SOME
RAINBANDS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MEXICAN COAST PRIMARILY FROM
PUERTO ANGEL TO ZIHUATANEJO.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0900Z 13.8N 101.2W 30 KTS
12HR VT 26/1800Z 13.9N 101.5W 40 KTS
24HR VT 27/0600Z 14.2N 102.1W 50 KTS
36HR VT 27/1800Z 14.3N 102.5W 60 KTS
48HR VT 28/0600Z 14.5N 103.0W 70 KTS
72HR VT 29/0600Z 14.8N 104.0W 70 KTS
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