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HURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED MAY 30 2001
THE AREAL EXTENT OF COLD CLOUD TOPS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH.
BASED ON THE NCEP HIGH-RESOLUTION SST ANALYSIS...ADOLPH IS NOW NEAR
26 DEG C SST. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER SLIGHTLY
COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AS NOTED EARLIER...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE GFDL AND AVN MODELS WEAKEN THE
HURRICANE QUITE RAPIDLY AND THIS IS NOT BELIEVED TO BE ENTIRELY
REALISTIC. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE..AND SHOWS A SLIGHTLY FASTER WEAKENING RATE THAN GIVEN
BY THE SHIPS MODEL
INITIAL MOTION...285/08...IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. RAWINSONDE DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER BAJA...AND THIS HAS
PROBABLY CAUSED THE SLIGHT SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED. THE GFDL
MODEL CONTINUES TO INSIST ON A VERY SLOW MOTION AND A TURN TO THE
RIGHT IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER THE
AVN...NCEP GLOBAL...MODEL SHOWS A PRONOUNCED 500 MB ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING NEAR AND WEST OF BAJA DURING THAT TIME. THEREFORE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 16.2N 108.3W 95 KTS
12HR VT 31/0000Z 16.6N 109.5W 90 KTS
24HR VT 31/1200Z 16.8N 111.0W 75 KTS
36HR VT 01/0000Z 17.0N 112.5W 65 KTS
48HR VT 01/1200Z 17.0N 113.5W 55 KTS
72HR VT 02/1200Z 17.0N 115.5W 40 KTS
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