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TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN AUG 26 2001
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE...
LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH BANDING FEATURES TO BE UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON
SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT...T2.5...FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO THE SOUTHEAST AND FAIR
ELSEWHERE. 34-KT RADII ON THE SOUTH SIDE ARE BASED ON EARLIER
REPORTS FROM SOCORRO ISLAND INDICATING ONLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE
AMONG THE VARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS WITH SOME TAKING FLOSSIE QUICKLY
TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHILE SOME TAKE THE CYCLONE
NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE GLOBAL MODELS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE AVN TAKING FLOSSIE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST...
WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS GENERALLY KEEP FLOSSIE NEARLY
STATIONARY OR MAKE A TIGHT CYCLONIC LOOP AROUND SOCORRO ISLAND FOR
36 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN TAKE IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AFTER THAT. THE
GFDL CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS IN TAKING FLOSSIE TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN BAJA IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. NOGAPS AND
THE UKMET APPEAR TO HAVE FLOSSIE CAUGHT IN SOME LARGER-SCALE
CYCLONIC GYRE THAT IS NOT APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THE
MOMENT. GIVEN THE SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE OF THE AVN IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC SO FAR THIS YEAR...THE OFFICAL TRACK HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN
AND TURNED MORE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER 36 HOURS DUE TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SINCE THE
CENTER OF FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SSTS ABOVE 26C.
HOWEVER... THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATER JUST TO THE NORTHWEST
MAY INHIBIT THE MORE TYPICAL STRENGTHENING TREND OF 20 KT...OR ONE
DVORAK T-NUMBER...PER DAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL THROUGH 24 HOURS...BUT THEN SLOWS
DOWN INTENSIFCATION BY ONLY BRINGING FLOSSIE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH
IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/2100Z 20.2N 111.1W 35 KTS
12HR VT 27/0600Z 20.4N 112.0W 40 KTS
24HR VT 27/1800Z 20.5N 113.1W 45 KTS
36HR VT 28/0600Z 20.5N 114.1W 50 KTS
48HR VT 28/1800Z 20.4N 115.0W 55 KTS
72HR VT 29/1800Z 20.0N 116.0W 65 KTS
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