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HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON AUG 27 2001
FLOSSIE IS MOVING 230/05. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
DIVERGENT WITH MOTIONS VARYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD. THE
MAIN THING HERE IS THAT THE SPEED OF MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE VERY
SLOW. . THE TRACK FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOVEMENT FOR
THE NEXT 3 DAYS...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SIMILAR TO
THE AVIATION AND UKMET MODELS.
THE WIND SPEED REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS AS SUPPORTED BY 65 KNOT SATELLITE
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFGWC. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
EXCELLENT BANDING AND A SMALL DEE[ CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR THE CENTER.
THE FORECAST IS FOR STRENGTHENING TO 85 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS
FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS VERTICAL
SHEAR AND SSTS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0300Z 19.4N 114.3W 65 KTS
12HR VT 28/1200Z 19.2N 114.8W 70 KTS
24HR VT 29/0000Z 19.0N 115.5W 75 KTS
36HR VT 29/1200Z 18.9N 116.3W 80 KTS
48HR VT 30/0000Z 18.9N 117.0W 85 KTS
72HR VT 31/0000Z 19.1N 117.7W 80 KTS
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