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HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2001
FLOSSIE APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN A WEAKENING TREND AS SUGGESTED BY
DECREASING CONVECTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES ARE
DECREASING SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BROUGHT DOWN TO 80 KT AT THIS
TIME. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS FLOSSIE MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7. STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK AS A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE NW OF FLOSSIE MOVES WEST AND WEAKENS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS A CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER....A TURN
MORE TO THE WEST IS FORECAST AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE BECOMES
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENSEMBLE...AND CLOSE TO THE UKMET SOLUTION.
FORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0300Z 21.7N 117.4W 80 KTS
12HR VT 30/1200Z 22.3N 118.2W 75 KTS
24HR VT 31/0000Z 22.9N 119.0W 65 KTS
36HR VT 31/1200Z 23.3N 119.7W 55 KTS
48HR VT 01/0000Z 23.5N 120.5W 45 KTS
72HR VT 02/0000Z 24.0N 121.5W 35 KTS
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