ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2001
...CORRECTED AWIPS HEADER TO MIATCDEP3...
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS
NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS
BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM TAFB AND
25 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/7. HOWEVER...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION RELATIVE TO
THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. THE CENTER HAS BEEN PLACED ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS DUE TO SOME WEAK EASTERLY
SHEAR. T.D. EIGHT-E SHOULD TRACK IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST OR
WESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD OWING TO THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
MODEL GUDIANCE AND IS A BLEND BETWEEN CLIPER AND THE BAM MODELS.
AS A RESULT OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE...ONLY SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WAS FOLLOWED THROUGH 36 HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0900Z 15.7N 122.8W 30 KTS
12HR VT 04/1800Z 15.9N 123.9W 35 KTS
24HR VT 05/0600Z 16.3N 125.5W 40 KTS
36HR VT 05/1800Z 16.6N 127.0W 45 KTS
48HR VT 06/0600Z 16.9N 128.5W 55 KTS
72HR VT 07/0600Z 17.6N 131.5W 65 KTS
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