ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2001
GIL IS SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 45...55...AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY.
MICROWAVE PASSES...HOWEVER...STILL SHOW A SOMEWHAT SHEARED SYSTEM
WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE
SYSTEM HAS GOOD BANDING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE OUTFLOW
PATTERN IS DECENT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/7. GIL IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS AHEAD OF
GIL...AS DEPICTED BY THE CIMSS WATER VAPOR WINDS...ARE MUCH LESS
WELL DEFINED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS DIVERGENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
MULTIPLE HINTS OF A SLOW ERRATIC MOTION FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS. ON THE ONE HAND...THE NOGAPS TAKES GIL TO THE WEST...WHILE
THE UKMET KEEPS THE SYSTEM STATIONARY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
THINKING IS THAT GIL WILL MOVE SLOWLY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR SHOULD BE REASONABLY
LIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL
GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/2100Z 15.5N 124.6W 45 KTS
12HR VT 05/0600Z 15.8N 125.7W 50 KTS
24HR VT 05/1800Z 16.0N 126.9W 55 KTS
36HR VT 06/0600Z 16.3N 128.0W 60 KTS
48HR VT 06/1800Z 16.8N 129.0W 65 KTS
72HR VT 07/1800Z 18.0N 131.0W 70 KTS
NNNN
Problems?