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TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2001
GIL HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A MICROWAVE PASS
NEAR 06Z SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS ABOUT 30 MILES TO THE
EAST OF THE UPPER CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55
KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE-E IS IMPINGING ON GIL AND CONTRIBUTING TO THE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
PULLED BACK A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH THE EXPECTATION
THAT THIS SHEARING WILL CONTINUE AS THE DEPRESSION APPROACHES GIL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
GIL REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. GIL IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT GIL
WILL RESUME A TRACK TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST SOON. THE AVN
LIFTS OUT THE LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 30N/140W LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND EXTENDS THE RIDGE WESTWARD AS THE LOW PULLS OUT.
THE MODEL DISSIPATES THE DEPRESSION AND SO IT REMAINS TOO WEAK TO
HAVE MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF GIL. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW AS MUCH MOTION AS MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...AND
ASSUMES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RETARDATION OF THE STEERING FLOW
FROM TD-NINE-E.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/1500Z 15.4N 124.7W 55 KTS
12HR VT 06/0000Z 15.4N 124.7W 55 KTS
24HR VT 06/1200Z 15.5N 125.0W 60 KTS
36HR VT 07/0000Z 15.8N 126.0W 60 KTS
48HR VT 07/1200Z 16.1N 127.0W 60 KTS
72HR VT 08/1200Z 17.0N 129.0W 60 KTS
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