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TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED SEP 05 2001
GIL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TIGHT BANDING NEAR THE CORE THAT MAY PRESAGE THE FORMATION OF AN
EYE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND 65
KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIED
FROM HENRIETTE IMPINGING ON THE CIRCULATION OF GIL...AND NONE OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...SAVE THE GFDL...THINKS THAT MUCH MORE
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER...IT WOULD TAKE VERY LITTLE TO MAKE
GIL A HURRICANE.
AFTER REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY FOR 12 HOURS...GIL HAS RESUMED A
WESTWARD TRACK. THE AVN AND UKMET GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
BUILDING A RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS NOT AS FAST AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE. I
AM PRESUMING THAT THE CIRCULATION OF HENRIETTE WILL HAVE SOME
RETARDING EFFECT THAT IS NOT WELL REPRESENTED IN THE MODELS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/2100Z 15.2N 125.8W 60 KTS
12HR VT 06/0600Z 15.3N 126.3W 65 KTS
24HR VT 06/1800Z 15.5N 127.0W 65 KTS
36HR VT 07/0600Z 16.1N 128.1W 65 KTS
48HR VT 07/1800Z 17.0N 129.5W 60 KTS
72HR VT 08/1800Z 18.5N 132.5W 60 KTS
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