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HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI SEP 07 2001
GIL DOES NOT LOOK AS HEALTHY AS IT DID LAST NIGHT. THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN IS NOW RATHER ASYMMETRIC...WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE
CENTER. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 AND 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...
RESPECTIVELY...AND THE TAFB ESTIMATE IS THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY IN THIS ADVISORY.
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK THAT HEALTHY EITHER...BEING
AFFECTED BY NORTHEASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM HENRIETTE. HOWEVER...WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO SO THE
HURRICANE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD ITS OWN FOR A WHILE. TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SSTS WILL DECREASE AND A WEAKENING
TREND SHOULD COMMENCE.
WITH THE DEGENERATION OF THE EYE...IT IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE THE MOTION...WHICH IS OFFICIALLY ESTIMATED TO BE 310/6...
BUT MAY IN FACT BE A LITTLE LEFT OF THAT. I DO NOT CURRENTLY SEE
THE NORTHWARD MOTION DISCUSSED IN THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE.
PERHAPS VISIBLE IMAGERY IN A FEW HOURS WILL HELP. REGARDLESS...MUCH
OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TAKES GIL SHARPLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE
CIRCULATION OF HENRIETTE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW
NEARLY AS MUCH INTERACTION AND FOLLOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
TRACK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/1500Z 15.9N 129.7W 75 KTS
12HR VT 08/0000Z 16.4N 130.6W 75 KTS
24HR VT 08/1200Z 17.1N 131.7W 75 KTS
36HR VT 09/0000Z 18.0N 132.9W 70 KTS
48HR VT 09/1200Z 19.0N 134.0W 65 KTS
72HR VT 10/1200Z 20.0N 136.0W 55 KTS
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