ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 07 2001
RECENT SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN THAT SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO BE MADE TO THE LOCATION...MOTION...AND
FORECAST TRACK OF GIL FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AS CORRECTLY
NOTED IN THE 09Z DISCUSSION...AND INCORRECTLY DISCOUNTED IN THE 15Z
DISCUSSION...GIL HAS TURNED IN RESPONSE TO THE CIRCULATION OF
HENRIETTE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/6. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES
GIL NORTH OR NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEN BENDS THE
TRACK BACK TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE
RIGHT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT STILL DOES
NOT SHOW AS MUCH CURVATURE IN THE TRACK AS THE AVN...GFDL...OR
UKMET. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD GIL MAY FIND ITS PROGRESS BLOCKED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHWEST...AND SO THE FORWARD SPEED IS SLOWED ON DAY THREE.
GIVEN THE ADJUSTMENTS IN LOCATION...GIL WAS PROBABLY BETTER
ORGANIZED THAN I PREVIOUSLY GAVE IT CREDIT FOR THIS MORNING.
CONVECTION REMAINS VIGOROUS BUT HAS LITTLE SHAPE. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES ARE A CONSENSUS 77 KT...AND SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. GIL IS EXPERIENCING NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR FROM HENRIETTE. WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ADJUSTMENT...
GIL WILL GET INTO COOLER WATERS SOONER...AND SO THE WEAKENING TREND
IS MORE RAPID WITH THIS ADVISORY.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/2100Z 16.8N 129.5W 75 KTS
12HR VT 08/0600Z 17.6N 130.0W 75 KTS
24HR VT 08/1800Z 19.0N 130.3W 70 KTS
36HR VT 09/0600Z 20.5N 131.0W 60 KTS
48HR VT 09/1800Z 21.5N 132.5W 50 KTS
72HR VT 10/1800Z 22.0N 134.0W 40 KTS
NNNN
Problems?