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HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 07 2001
RECENT SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF GIL IS NOW NEAR
THE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...INDICATIVE OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.
BASED ON THIS AND ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 77 KT FROM
THE THREE AGENCIES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED TO 65 KT.
STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS GIL MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/8. A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY MOTION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH 36-48 HOURS AS REFLECTED IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
AFTER 48 HOURS...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE
VARIOUS MODELS DIVERGE. THE UKMET AND GFDL TURN THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
SOUTHWEST...WITH THE AVN SHOWING A MORE RAPID MOTION TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS AND LBAR TURN GIL MORE TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHILE THE BAMM AND BAMD SHOOT THE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. AS HENRIETTE WEAKENS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
GIL...ITS AFFECT ON THE TRACK OF GIL WILL DECREASE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE AWAY FROM EACH OTHER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHADES THE TRACK
CLOSER TO THE SLOWER UKMET AND GFDL SOLUTIONS BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK.
FORECASTER JARVINEN/MOLLEDA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/0300Z 17.7N 129.7W 65 KTS
12HR VT 08/1200Z 18.9N 129.9W 55 KTS
24HR VT 09/0000Z 20.5N 130.5W 45 KTS
36HR VT 09/1200Z 21.3N 131.5W 40 KTS
48HR VT 10/0000Z 22.0N 132.5W 35 KTS
72HR VT 11/0000Z 22.0N 134.5W 30 KTS
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