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TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 08 2001
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTERS OF GIL AND THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE CONTINUE
TO REVOLVE AROUND EACH OTHER. LITTLE DEEP CONVECTIVE HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO SYSTEM DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A QUIKSCAT
PASS AT 1412Z SHOWS A FEW 40 KNOT WINDS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER OF GIL. DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. WE WILL CARRY THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT 40
KNOTS...REDUCING IT 10 KNOTS FROM 6 HOURS PREVIOUSLY. WITH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 23C OR COOLER ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...CONTINUED WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR.
ALTHOUGH MOVING NEAR 14 KNOTS CURRENTLY...THE BEST GUIDANCE
FORECASTS THIS FORWARD MOTION TO DECREASE DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE DIRECTION GRADUALLY CHANGING FROM WEST NORTHWEST TO
WEST SOUTHWEST. MODELS FORECASTING THIS TREND INCLUDE THE GFDI...
UKMI AND CONSENSUS MODELS...GUNS AND GUNA.
THE WIND RADII FOR GIL WHICH IN THE LAST ADVISORY WERE ADJUSTED TO
INCLUDE THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH HENRIETTE ARE BEING REDUCED
AS GIL BECOMES THE DOMINATE, THOUGH WEAKENING SYSTEM.
FORECASTER GROSS
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/2100Z 22.3N 132.6W 40 KTS
12HR VT 09/0600Z 22.9N 134.0W 30 KTS
24HR VT 09/1800Z 23.2N 135.8W 25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 10/0600Z 22.9N 137.1W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 10/1800Z 22.4N 138.3W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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