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TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE OCT 02 2001
THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES IS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING...ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO
THE NORTHWEST. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.5 SO THE INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 35 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LORENA IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEYOND 36 HOURS. THIS IS
QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THE LATEST SHIPS
GUIDANCE.
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...285/9...IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE STEERING REGIME CONTINUES
TO BE MID-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...WITHIN WHICH TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE HAS BEEN
EMBEDDED. IN RESPONSE TO THE STEERING WINDS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM...LORENA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTH AND
NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME TRAJECTORY AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS
SLIGHTLY FASTER. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GFDL...AVN...U.K. MET OFFICE AND NOGAPS TRACKS...BUT LEANS MORE
TOWARD THE AVN.
SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES LORENA TO THE COAST IN 2-3
DAYS...INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS STORM.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/1500Z 12.8N 104.8W 35 KTS
12HR VT 03/0000Z 13.5N 105.7W 40 KTS
24HR VT 03/1200Z 15.2N 106.8W 50 KTS
36HR VT 04/0000Z 17.3N 107.5W 55 KTS
48HR VT 04/1200Z 19.5N 107.5W 60 KTS
72HR VT 05/1200Z 24.0N 105.5W 45 KTS...INLAND
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