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TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED OCT 03 2001
THE CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED ON THE SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT EARLIER POSITION ESTIMATES WERE A BIT TOO FAR TO THE
NORTH...SO THE FORWARD SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER...ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE POSITION ESTIMATE IS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. ADDITIONAL VISIBLE PICTURES SHOULD GIVE A BETTER
ESTIMATE OF LOCATION.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON ARE 55
KNOTS AND 45 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY...SO THE CURRENT WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 50 KNOTS. DEEP CONVECTION WEAKENED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THIS MAY BE A SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATION.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT LORENA
SHOULD INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ALLOWS FOR ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY BEFORE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST. HOWEVER IF THE ORGANIZATION OF
THE SYSTEM IMPROVES LATER TODAY...THE HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE
UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/1500Z 16.7N 106.5W 50 KTS
12HR VT 04/0000Z 18.2N 106.5W 55 KTS
24HR VT 04/1200Z 21.0N 106.3W 60 KTS
36HR VT 05/0000Z 24.0N 105.5W 35 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT 05/1200Z...INLAND
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