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TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED OCT 03 2001
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ARE STILL NOT CONCLUSIVE AS TO THE CENTER
POSITION. THE STORM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...WITH LITTLE OR NO
EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES AND THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KNOTS. AIR FORCE
RECON...SCHEDULED FOR 00Z TONIGHT...SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE SINCE LORENA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
STRENGTH IS SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST.
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/8...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THE
CENTER IS SO POORLY DEFINED. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH STEERING PATTERN PROVIDED BY A 500 MB LOW
OVER BAJA AND AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST BASED ON THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
SATELLITE RAINFALL ESTIMATES RANGE UP TO 8 INCHES...AND THIS COULD
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS FLOODING IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
THE 34-KT WIND RADIUS HAS BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
BASED ON A SHIP REPORT.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/2100Z 16.8N 106.3W 50 KTS
12HR VT 04/0600Z 18.5N 105.9W 55 KTS
24HR VT 04/1800Z 20.8N 105.3W 50 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT 05/0600Z 23.5N 104.5W 30 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
48HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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