ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2001
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS FROM ALL THREE
AGENCIES. OVERALL...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OUTFLOW
PATTERN AND SINCE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD TO 45 KNOTS. LATEST SHIPS INTENSITY
GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES MODERATE STRENGTHENING THROUGH 36 HOURS AND
THEN A WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
INITIAL FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED TO 11 KNOTS. THE OVERALL FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN AFTER A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST NORTH OF DUE
WEST...BUT IN THE LONG RANGE...MANUEL COULD TRACK MORE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
ANTICYCLONE.
FORECASTER AVILA/NELSON
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0300Z 16.1N 107.8W 45 KTS
12HR VT 12/1200Z 16.5N 109.0W 45 KTS
24HR VT 13/0000Z 17.0N 111.3W 55 KTS
36HR VT 13/1200Z 17.0N 114.0W 60 KTS
48HR VT 14/0000Z 17.5N 116.5W 60 KTS
72HR VT 15/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W 60 KTS
NNNN
Problems?