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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI OCT 12 2001
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION. TAFB AND SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 2.0 INDICATING
A 30 KT DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD AT 30
KNOTS INITIALLY WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. THE
SYSTEM COULD BE A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS
BASED ON THE AVIATION MODEL...HOWEVER...THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD LINGER AS A DEPRESSION OR EVEN A STORM
A LITTLE LONGER.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 255/12. THE GFDL...UKMET...AND AVIATION
MODELS ALL SUGGEST WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS VERY SIMILIAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECASTER AVILA/NELSON
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0300Z 14.8N 112.1W 30 KTS
12HR VT 13/1200Z 14.8N 113.0W 25 KTS
24HR VT 14/0000Z 14.7N 114.0W 25 KTS
36HR VT 14/1200Z 14.8N 115.0W 20 KTS
48HR VT 15/0000Z 15.5N 116.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 16/0000Z 17.0N 117.8W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
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