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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN OCT 14 2001
LATEST IMAGERY SHOWS A WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS...WHICH IS PROBABLY
A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5...WHICH CORRESPONDS
TO 35 KNOTS. MANUEL CONTINUES TO BE INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW JUST TO ITS WEST. THERE IS A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR OVER THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THE
UPPER LOW MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MANUEL DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...IT APPEARS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL STILL HAVE SOME
SOUTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING IT LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALSO
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...COOLING SSTS SHOULD BE AN INHIBITING
FACTOR. WITH THE QUESTIONABLE FUTURE ENVIRONMENT AND THE CURRENT
NOT-SO-IMPRESSIVE APPEARENCE OF MANUEL...I HAVE FURTHER REDUCED THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. THIS IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE AS WELL.
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND...BUT LATEST FIXES SUGGEST LITTLE
OVERALL MOVEMENT. IT APPEARS THAT MANUEL IS SITUATED IN A BROAD
MID-LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONES. AS NOTED IN THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION...THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THE BUILDING OF A 500 MB
HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF MANUEL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO BEGIN SOON. THIS
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AND TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0300Z 14.4N 113.9W 35 KTS
12HR VT 15/1200Z 15.0N 114.6W 35 KTS
24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.0N 115.7W 40 KTS
36HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 117.0W 45 KTS
48HR VT 17/0000Z 18.5N 118.5W 45 KTS
72HR VT 18/0000Z 21.0N 121.0W 45 KTS
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