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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2001
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE DOWN AND ARE NOW 35 AND 45
KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT.
MANUEL IS BEGINNING TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND SSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 26C. THE
AVN...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ARE UNANIMOUS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE
INCREASING SHARPLY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ADD IN THE
CONTRIBUTION FROM COOLER WATERS...AND MANUEL SHOULD BE ON THE FAST
TRACK TO DISSIPATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10...TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AGAIN. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS ERODING...
AND MANUEL STILL HAS ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO BE RESPONDING.
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...MANUEL SHOULD
BE PROGRESSIVELY STEERED BY LOWER-LEVEL FLOW AND SO PROBABLY WILL
NOT TURN MUCH MORE TO THE RIGHT...AND IF SO ONLY BRIEFLY. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY RECENT TRACK...AND IS A BLEND OF THE UKMET
AND THE AVN SOLUTIONS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 20.2N 121.3W 40 KTS
12HR VT 17/1800Z 21.2N 122.5W 35 KTS
24HR VT 18/0600Z 22.3N 123.8W 30 KTS
36HR VT 18/1800Z 23.2N 125.1W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 19/0600Z 24.0N 126.5W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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