ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2001
INTERMITTENT SMALL BURSTS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR AND
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF MANUEL. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT AND 35 KT...
RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED
TO 35 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/9 KT. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
MANUEL HAS RESULTED IN NORTHWESTERLY MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
THIS GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MANUEL
DISSIPATES IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
UKMET-GFDL-AVN-NOGAPS MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER...INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...COOLER
SSTS...AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD
RESULT IN CONTINUED WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH INDICATES
DISSIPATION BY 36 HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/1500Z 20.8N 121.7W 35 KTS
12HR VT 18/0000Z 21.7N 122.5W 30 KTS
24HR VT 18/1200Z 22.8N 123.4W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 19/0000Z 23.6N 124.5W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
NNNN
Problems?