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TROPICAL STORM ERIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2001
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.1 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT FRI SEP 7 2001
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
18.9N 56.5W 49 X X X 49 TISX 177N 648W X X X 3 3
20.4N 59.0W 1 32 X 1 34 TIST 183N 650W X X 1 3 4
21.7N 60.5W X 18 7 1 26 TJSJ 184N 661W X X X 2 2
TFFR 163N 615W X 1 1 2 4 ST CROIX VI X X X 3 3
TAPA 171N 618W X 1 3 2 6 ST THOMAS VI X X 1 3 4
TKPK 173N 627W X X 3 2 5 SAN JUAN PR X X X 2 2
TNCM 181N 631W X X 4 4 8
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED
C FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU
D FROM 2AM THU TO 2AM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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